No internal combustion by 2030 - FBHVC response.

[MattH]

The MMA is a member of the FBHVC because they are the body that lobbies government to ensure the continued use of our vehicles and us to protect our hobby.

Please take a moment to read the link or attachment

FBHVC Position for 2030 Ban - 19.11.2020.pdf

(214.61 KiB) Downloaded 86 times

.

https://www.fbhvc.co.uk/news/article/fb ... -from-2030

[mustangbooks]

A very reasonable response, in contrast to some of the hysteria from the Daily Telegraph types I've seen on social media!

My daily driver is an EV (fully EV, not a hybrid) and is the best car I've ever owned, fun to drive, mega acceleration, and great for the geeky side of me as it's got lots of new tech. It doesn't stop me using or enjoying my old smelly noisy Challenger, they're different vehicles for different uses, and they can co-exist happily in my life.

[morgan]

Its all fine. The cars will roll longer than most of us.

It'll get trickier - the shift in fuel availability (wot Blue said a while back) etc but they wont be banned completely...

The 2030 isnt going to happen anyway - They cant even roll out Smart metering to pre-existing infrastructure. The leaps in technology, battery advancement, charging capacity let alone the sheer volume of power needed. I read some clown the other day saying 'why cant the cars just have solar panels on the roof like Teslas' - I think people underestimate just how much juice is needed for these things !
In short, it wont happen in those timescales. We'll be on the way, but wont be there yet unless tech advances much faster than currently.

[Blue]

IMO the electric only option is only viable in first world cities, they have clean air, the pollution happens somewhere else. Rural areas, the wide open spaces and the third world will require something else, ICE of some sort seem the obvious solution there. As far as I'm aware there is no electric truck that can carry a decent payload yet for a start. Options other than electric will have to be sorted. I love my V8's, I hate waste and I do believe the planet needs saving, but when the government solution under a green agenda is to throw away perfectly serviceable vehicles and force you to buy a new one, you know it's about money not the environment.

[mustangbooks]

IMO the electric only option is only viable in first world cities, they have clean air, the pollution happens somewhere else. Rural areas, the wide open spaces and the third world will require something else, ICE of some sort seem the obvious solution there. As far as I'm aware there is no electric truck that can carry a decent payload yet for a start. Options other than electric will have to be sorted. I love my V8's, I hate waste and I do believe the planet needs saving, but when the government solution under a green agenda is to throw away perfectly serviceable vehicles and force you to buy a new one, you know it's about money not the environment.

Electric charge points are literally everywhere now in the UK, and many modern EVs have 200+ miles range before needing to be charged, so living in a city isn't a requirement! But yes, obviously the 3rd world countries will find it harder to achieve targets. China is the current world leader overall, but they have a bigger pollution problem to start with!

The technology for electric trucks is coming on in leaps and bounds (and many of the double deckers in London are now electric), so you'll see more electric trucks on the road in the near future.

Not sure what you mean about "throwing away perfectly serviceable vehicles and forcing you to buy a new one", as it's only new car sales that will be affected... old ICE cars will continue to be used, and the secondhand ICE car market will continue for quite a while!

[Blue]

That was more a comment about what happened with the LEZ but there is bound to be a surplus of serviceable vehicles that nobody will want. When I worked in transport until recently we had most of the available offerings in on trial, only hybrids come close to being able the carry the payload and they have an ICE, will their manufacture still be allowed? The all electric dustcart with a 15ton payload is a long way off unless batteries can be made significantly lighter or gross vehicle weights are increased to compensate. Electric has it's place, I just think the current government "all eggs in the electric basket" is the wrong approach.

[morgan]

Electric charge points are literally everywhere now in the UK,

Well - sort of. But its only really playing about and virtue signalling by local councils and companies. There are what maybe 2 in a car park ? To get 20 (30, 40, 200 ?? ) the infrastructure investment will be mega - just the feeds will be epic. The current system is workable while there are like a few % electric cars but I think things would change soon become frustrating with any meaningful volumes.
I'm not saying it wont happen, I'm just saying that 10yrs to expect all new cars to be electric given the massive changes needed is optimistic at best. (mind you, better use of money than HS2 probably... how has that not died yet ?!?).

The shift long term is inevitable - its too politically delicious not to. I do wonder if it will be hydrogen though rather than battery...?

[Blue]

Hydrogen would be a much better answer IMO, and there is the possibility of retro fitting. Don't kid yourself a government can't bring about huge change quickly, all it takes is the will and the desire to put the money towards it. Just look at how fast we tooled up for the 2nd world war if you want evidence of that. But yes, no doubt Boris will make a pigs ear of it.

[mustangbooks]

That was more a comment about what happened with the LEZ but there is bound to be a surplus of serviceable vehicles that nobody will want. When I worked in transport until recently we had most of the available offerings in on trial, only hybrids come close to being able the carry the payload and they have an ICE, will their manufacture still be allowed? The all electric dustcart with a 15ton payload is a long way off unless batteries can be made significantly lighter or gross vehicle weights are increased to compensate. Electric has it's place, I just think the current government "all eggs in the electric basket" is the wrong approach.

Hybrids until 2035 I believe, by which time battery technology will have improved, I'm 100% sure, to allow bigger payloads than today!

I know most of the truck manufacturers are working on electric, but one example off the top of my head is Volta trucks, and the current spec shows a max payload of 8.6 tonnes (https://www.voltatrucks.com/#Specification) - so again, with the current rate of improvements in battery technology, it won't be long before 15 tonnes is reached (may already be achieved by other companies, I haven't really been watching truck technology!)

Absolutely agree that other green technologies like Hydrogen should be pursued alongside battery, including more cycling, walking, and remote working.

[mustangbooks]

Electric charge points are literally everywhere now in the UK,

Well - sort of. But its only really playing about and virtue signalling by local councils and companies. There are what maybe 2 in a car park ? To get 20 (30, 40, 200 ?? ) the infrastructure investment will be mega - just the feeds will be epic. The current system is workable while there are like a few % electric cars but I think things would change soon become frustrating with any meaningful volumes.
I'm not saying it wont happen, I'm just saying that 10yrs to expect all new cars to be electric given the massive changes needed is optimistic at best. (mind you, better use of money than HS2 probably... how has that not died yet ?!?).

The shift long term is inevitable - its too politically delicious not to. I do wonder if it will be hydrogen though rather than battery...?

It's not until you own an EV and download the maps that you realise how many chargepoints are around... all the large Tescos near me have installed 4 or 6 points for example. I recently stopped at a new Instavolt installation near Banbury, with 8 rapid chargers (see pic), and a company called Gridserve is building electric charging forecourts around the country (Braintree in Essex being the first) with up to 24 rapid chargers per site, and these will only increase in number https://www.gridserve.com/electric-vehicle-charging

Anyway, the vast majority of charging is done overnight on peoples' driveways (yes, I know not everyone has a driveway and we need more street chargers!...)

All the naysayers seem to think they are the first to think about the future power requirements from the grid, but I can assure you the National Grid is well aware of what the move to more EVs will require, and has been planning for it for years!!

IMG_20201006_115148301_HDR (2).jpg (375.81 KiB) Viewed 1753 times

[Trigger_Andy]

Norway is very geared up for EV's. Every second car seems to be a Tesla. Huge tax incentives, free charging at work, free tolls (and there is a lot of them) and free ferry use. I think some of the perks are being reduced though. With cars having 100%+ in tax on a new sale and none (or very little )on an EV you're getting a top of the range Tesla for Volvo money.

But then Norway is the land of hydroelectricity, electricity is about 7p a kwh and around 15p in the UK. In fact this was the first year that electricity went negative and people where paid to take it.

https://norwaytoday.info/news/did-norwa ... -happened/ (an øre is about 10p)

We're a long long way behind.

[mustangbooks]

But then Norway is the land of hydroelectricity, electricity is about 7p a kwh and around 15p in the UK. In fact this was the first year that electricity went negative and people where paid to take it.

https://norwaytoday.info/news/did-norwa ... -happened/ (an øre is about 10p)

We're a long long way behind.

Yes, a lot of EV owners who charge at home use flexible tariffs such as Octopus Agile, where you can indeed be paid to use electricity if you set the timer to charge at the right time!

[MrNorm]

I'll reproduce what I posted in the last thread about this because it's the same I would say here.

I wouldn't hasten the end of IC engines! The transition to electric will take quite a while, and even once the battery technology is adequate (charge times/range/weight) the infrastructure to support the massive amounts of electricity required is going to require a lot of thought and money. You'd need a substation at every motorway services if you want to use the grid. And multiple new powerstations. So will need massive amounts of renewable electricity (sun/wind) and a way to transport that easily cheaply from where it is produced, or produce it locally where it is needed. Either way, with wind/solar it makes sense to have a way to store it because the cost of generating is not substantial compared to the cost of investment, and also so you can use what you need when you want it. Enter power-to-liquids or power-to-gas. Basically once you have enough renewable sources of electricity with cheap enough power, there are quite a few ways to convert it to liquid or gaseous fuels (hydrogen and methane=>methanol being good ones) which make it very energy dense, and either zero carbon (hydrogen) or carbon neutral (methanol if you use CO2 to make it) if you burn it. You can even synthesise petrol and diesel, though not sure that would be the best choice. There are good reasons why liquid fuels may still be needed (airplanes, possibly trucks etc). So although none of this will happen with classic cars in mind, I'm very hopeful that we will have future 'green' , liquid fuels that we can run in our cars!! And maybe even make affordably from our own wind turbine in the garden!!

I stand by that. The global market share of BEV's is currently less than 5%. Even in China it's less than 10%. Imagine 100% of new cars being sold are BEV. This will take a revolution in the supply of electricity. how many charging points are available now is not really that relevant. It will take a sea change. Germany worked out they would need 20 new power stations! And some would have to be either coal or Nuclear. Also the infrastructure to distribute the energy is massive. I work in the Automotive industry, I spent many years in Powertrain (ICE) and my company currently supplies EV Battery Management systems to the largest OEM's in the world. So I'm not an expert but I am in the industry. There are very clean ICE options that are technically achievable - effectively zero emissions, and some that if not zero are cleaner than their surroundings. and that is with petrol/diesel. There are other non-fossil fuel options for ICE (eg hydrogen etc). So I think the 'ban' is overreaching and more about making a statement than taking a reasoned approach. But we all know the world we live in today. Step on a crack in the pavement and someone will unleash their vitriol, so reasoned debate is hard to have when people resort to calling the government 'climate change deniers', or 'sucking up to big business' etc etc.
HGV's will be the hardest to electrify - even by 2040 projections are limited to less than 20%. their long term solution will likely be Fuel Cells (which use...yes hydrogen)
EV's are here to stay and that's fine by me, but we need a realistic approach that utilises all the technology available, and eventually that's what will probably have to happen, assuming the use of reason is not illegal in coming years

[mustangbooks]

I think we're all agreed that hydrogen or a similar technology can and will be an important factor in the future - even the National Grid's response to the recent govt announcement covers it:

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/jo ... green-plan

People seem to forget that the current infrastructure for getting crude oil out of the ground, refining it and getting the fuel to your local petrol station takes a HUGE amount of energy. If petrol and diesel demand falls, the refineries and distribution chains will themselves be using less power (a somewhat simplistic description but I can't be bothered to look up the figures right now...)

edit: this vid from 2014 is quite a good illustration of how much energy refineries use:

[Steve]

I know nothing about the technology around electric cars etc but still firmly believe we are the last generation who will ever enjoy the feel and sound of an American classic V8. My car owes me nothing and, if I was told by the Government tomorrow that I couldn't use it again then I would keep it as an ornament or give it to a museum somewhere. It's probably a knee jerk reaction but if I had 50 or 60k tied up in a classic car, I would be selling it now before it becomes something that cant be used and becomes worthless. I would use some of the cash to buy a nice useable, non exotic American station wagon or similar, enjoy it and run it into the ground over the next 10 years. I would enjoy the rest of the money flying off on nice holidays before Greta becomes President of the World and makes us all swim to the Caribbean.

Doom and gloom I know but all the Govt needs to do is bring in a mandatory emissions test for all cars, including classics and our hobby will be history overnight. My big concern is the environmental disaster that is waiting to happen when we have 20 million lithium batteries to dispose of every year!!

Can you imagine what the classic car shows will look like in 2050....'wow, look at that Gen 1 Prius Satsuma Castanet...the batteries for those are rare as rocking horse muck!'

Get out in your car...enjoy it and fingers crossed it lasts for ever!!!

Cheers Steve